Vannamei shrimps season just started – market moving unpredictably.
Vietnam farmed quantity: same quantity of last year- about 500,000 Mts India: farmed quantity increases 20% compared with year 2020 (which was about 500,000 mts. Still lower than year 2019 of 800,000Mts)
Current price situation:
Size 13/15-26/30: stable due to high demand from USA Size 31/35-41/50: reduced as those are usually size requirements from EU markets Size 51/60-100/200: increasing under strong demand from EU and from Japan retailers as well as China market.
Price trend outlook for May:
Price won’t go much lower in the next 2 months even it is now peak season. If situation in India is controlled price is estimated to be stable; if India factories have to close, then price will be rocketing.
Reasons for our outlook:
– Many markets have recovered with the reopening of Food Services like as example USA, UK, China;
– USA overall inventory has lowered a lot while the new cargoes are on the sea and will arrive only from June/ Jul, therefore USA buyers are expected to keep buying big quantities and keep prices stable;
– The heavy Covid situation in India also made a big impact on the market outlook. If factories in India close down, USA buyers will have to rush to place orders in Vietnam to replace their inventories creating a huge price increase and disrupting the market;
– Current main size in India is HO 50pcs and raw material price is already 15-20% higher than Vietnam;
– Vietnam Packaging costs have increased 20-25%
– Ocean freight cost has increased at least double or triple depending on destination.
Top selling items:
USA market: + Cooked in Shell PTO + Raw PTO + EZ Peeled + Shrimps Ring Main sizes: 8/12-41/50
+ Breaded shrimp + Nobashi + Sushi Main sizes: 51/60-200/300
EU- UK market:
+ PD raw and cooked (including sushi) + Marinated shrimp + HOSO Shrimp Main sizes: 41/50-91/110
Currently in Indonesia there is a different trend for Vannamei Shrimp compared to previous two years. Normally when approaching Idul Fitri (Muslim Holiday) farmers will start to harvest and this will lower the raw material price. But the case for this year is that price of Vannamei Shrimp is increasing instead of going down. There are some reasons for this price increase:
Current raw material price informed from agents (+-2000 Rp): 1st price
HO 50 Rp73.000
HO 60 Rp70.000
HO 70 Rp66.000
HO 80 Rp61.000
HO 90 Rp53.000 – Rp 55.000
HO 100 Rp50.000 – 52.000
HO 110 Rp 48.000 – Rp50.000
At current due to Covid production is slowing down.
East coast harvesting is on and harvesting is good and even the Indian government had intervened to maintain raw material price so that there is no panic in the market.
Demand and buying from US Importers is stable and lots of the regular packers for USA market have orders confirmed until June/July 2021.
West coast harvesting has been delayed and is expected to start only in June 2021 this year.
Less HLSO raw materials shipments to Vietnam factories for reprocessing seems to indicate that India prices are higher.
Overall market is stable and strong: unless India go into some kind of partial lockdowns of the plants, which we will have to wait and watch…….
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